It’s the New Year, and I for one am celebrating the start of 2016!
For my husband, and me, 2015 was somewhat rough. We both had foot surgeries (try keeping the weight off when you can’t even put weight on your feet) and dealt with serious illnesses among various family members. Happily all these situations are now under control, and we can begin to look forward to 2016 with a certain amount of optimism.
Which brings me to the heart of this post, “the optimism bias.” You might think this is a bad thing as neuroscience and social science suggest that we are more optimistic than realistic. We tend to anticipate that things will turn out for the best. It’s part of how we stay happy in the present moment, and I like being happy. I suspect you do, too. Being optimistic about the future is one way to deal with all the negative news that surrounds us in the media, and whatever negative things might be going on in our life right now.
Kids are notoriously optimistic. You can witness that in the games they play about the kind of role they will have in the world when they grow up. You might think adults would be more realistic. Not so. The fact is that all of us underestimate the likelihood that we will ever get divorced, lose a job, face bankruptcy, be diagnosed with a terminal disease, what we will achieve in our lifetimes, and how long we will actually live.
This idea that the future is bound to be better than the past is known as “the optimism bias.” This bias does not limit itself to one socioeconomic class, sex, race, or culture. It appears to be a human condition. Economists Manju Puri and David T. Robinson at Duke University published a study as far back as 2007 about this tendency in the Journal of Financial Economics. The abstract reads in part:
We create a novel measure of optimism…by comparing self-reported life expectancy to that implied by statistical tables. This measure of optimism correlates with positive beliefs about future economic conditions and with psychometric tests of optimism. Optimism is related to numerous work/life choices: more optimistic people work harder, expect to retire later, are more likely to remarry, invest more in individual stocks, and save more. Interestingly, however, moderate optimists display reasonable financial behavior, whereas extreme optimists display financial habits and behavior that are generally not considered prudent.
In other words, from a financial standpoint, moderate optimists do better in the world. Those people that are irrationally over-optimistic tend to make bad judgments in the financial arena. Puri and Robinson conclude “Optimism is a bit like red wine: too much is clearly bad, but a little each day can be good for one’s health.”
You can extrapolate this to matters outside of the financial: Social and medical scientists have amassed a wealth of experimental evidence indicating that dispositional optimism—having a positive general outlook towards the future—matters for physical and psychological well-being. The idea of “dispositional optimism” dates back to at least 1980 with the work of Neil Weinstein. He studied college students who rated their own chances in life to be “significantly above average for positive events” and “below average for negative events.”
So what is my point here? That the optimism bias is actually a good thing. Cancer patients and heart surgery patients actually do better in terms of recovery than their pessimistic peers. It seems that believing you will recover well actually helps you recover well. Optimism for teenagers leaving home for college or work also do better than their peers who are afraid they will not do well on their own, and project bad outcomes for themselves.
Realistic optimists are the ones more likely to take preventative measures to ensure the best possible outcome. According to the literature examined by Puri and Robinson, optimists are more likely to develop better coping habits or behavior. If they are aware that being stressed is hard on both the body and the mind, they are more likely to engage in activities like meditation or yoga to calm themselves down. If they believe the evidence that too much exposure to the sun will cause skin cancer, they are more likely to use sunscreen regularly.
So, go ahead. Celebrate the New Year. Believing it’s going to be better than the last one will help to make it so.
A great essay to start the new year. Spot on about what we really need to hear — and encouraging.
Let’s here it for optimism. I love your essays.
Thanks so much for the encouraging, and optimistic! words. I need to remember them in the midst of retiring from a day job and moving to a new place where I will continue my business and profession. Sometimes it feels lonely, but your words help. Happy New year!!
So happy to hear that you find these words helpful.
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